Deschutes County vs. Oregon
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Total Employment Growth and Change, 1969-2017
Introduction
Deschutes County:
2017 Jobs = 118,159
2017 Percent of State = 4.7%
Oregon:
2017 Jobs = 2,501,057
2017 Percent of State = 1.3%
Employment numbers remain the most popular and frequently cited statistics used for tracking local area economic conditions and trends. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) employment estimates reported measure the number of full- and part-time wage and salary employees, plus the number of proprietors of unincorporated businesses. People holding more than one job are counted in the employment estimates for each job they hold. This means BEA employment estimates represent a job count, not a people count. Also, BEA employment is by place-of-work, rather than by place-of-residence. Jobs held by neighboring county residents who commute to Deschutes County to work are included in the employment count for Deschutes County.
Data Definition:
The BEA employment series for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, full-time plus part-time, by place of work. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted at equal weight. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are not included. Proprietors employment consists of the number of sole proprietorships and the number of partners in partnerships. The description "by place of work" applies to the wage and salary portion of the series and, with relatively little error, to the entire series. The proprietors employment portion of the series, however, is more nearly by place of residence because, for nonfarm sole proprietorships, the estimates are based on IRS tax data that reflect the address from which the proprietor's individual tax return is filed, which is usually the proprietor's residence. The nonfarm partnership portion of the proprietors employment series reflects the tax-filing address of the partnership, which may be either the residence of one of the partners or the business address of the partnership. The employment estimates are designed to be consistent with the estimates of wage and salary disbursements and proprietors' income that are part of the personal income series. The employment estimates are based on the same sets of source data as the corresponding earnings estimates and are prepared with parallel methodologies. Two forms of proprietors' income-the income of limited partnerships and the income of tax-exempt cooperatives-have no corresponding employment estimates.
Total Employment, 1969-2017
Total Employment, 1969-2017
Figure 1.
Figure 1 traces Deschutes County's annual total employment for the period 1969-2017 to illustrate total employment patterns over time. During this 49-year period, Deschutes County's total employment rose from 12,947 in 1969 to 118,159 in 2017, for a net gain of 105,212, or 812.6%.
Total Employment, 1969-2017
Total Employment, 1969-2017
Figure 2.
Figure 2 tracks Oregon's annual total employment for the period 1969-2017 to illustrate total employment patterns over time. During this 49-year period, Oregon's total employment rose from 920,183 in 1969 to 2,501,057 in 2017, for a net gain of 1,580,874, or 171.8%.
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2017
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2017
Figure 3.
Figure 3 portrays Deschutes County's total employment growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Oregon, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's total employment in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the total employments in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in total employment growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Deschutes County's overall total employment growth was 812.6% over 1969-2017 outpaced Oregon's increase of 171.8%, and topped the United States' increase of 115.4%.
Total Employment as a Percent of the Oregon Total: 1969-2017
Total Employment as a Percent of the Oregon Total: 1969-2017
Figure 4.
Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the total employment growth of Deschutes County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Oregon's statewide total employment over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's total employment grew faster, or declined less, than Oregon's total employment, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.
In 1969, Deschutes County's total employment totaled 1.4% of Oregon's total employment, while in 2017 it equated to 4.7% thereby yielding a +3.3% share-shift.
   
 
Total Employment Share-Shift
2017 vs. 1969
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2017
vs.
1969
+3.32%
=
4.72%
-
1.41%
 
   
Deschutes County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2017
Deschutes County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2017
Figure 5.
Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Deschutes County's total employment growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2017. The average annual percent change for the entire 48-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Deschutes County's total employment grew at an annual rate of 4.81% over 1970-2017. The county recorded its highest growth in 1976 (13.44%) and posted its lowest growth in 2009 (-6.76%). In 2017, Deschutes County's total employment declined by -0.79%
Deschutes County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2017
Deschutes County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2017
Figure 6.
Over the past four decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Deschutes County's total employment since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2017.
During the 1970s, Deschutes County's annual total employment growth rate averaged 9.05%. It averaged 3.23% throughout the 1980s, 5.42% in the 1990s, 2.82% in the 2000s, and 3.20% thus far this decade (2010 to 2017).
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 7.
Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Deschutes County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Oregon and the nation. As the chart reveals, Deschutes County's average annual total employment growth registered above Oregon's average during the 1970s (9.05% vs. 3.92%), topped Oregon's average in the 1980s (3.23% vs. 1.59%), led Oregon's average in the 1990s (5.42% vs. 2.69%), led Oregon's average in the 2000s (2.82% vs. 0.68%), and recorded above Oregon's average over the 8 year period of the last decade, 2010-2017 (3.20% vs. 1.69%).
Finally, relative to nationwide total employment growth trends, Deschutes County surpassed the nation during the 1970s (9.05% vs. 2.21%), registered above the nation during the 1980s (3.23% vs. 1.88%), exceeded the nation during the 1990s (5.42% vs. 1.73%), led the nation over the 2000s (2.82% vs. 0.74%), and recorded above the nation over 2010-2017 (3.20% vs. 1.54%).
   
 
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
4.81
9.05
3.23
5.42
2.82
3.20
-0.79
 
2.13
3.92
1.59
2.69
0.68
1.69
2.20
 
1.62
2.21
1.88
1.73
0.74
1.54
1.43
 
   
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2017
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2017
Figure 8.
The job ratios shown in Figure 8 for Deschutes County, Oregon and the nation not only portray a number of important trends, they also serves as a thumbnail guide to evaluating an economy's capacity to generate enough jobs fast enough to absorb the increasing number of workers attendant to a growing population. The job ratio is the number of full-time and part-time jobs by place of work, divided by population.
Nationally, the job ratio rose from 0.45 to 0.60 between 1969 and 2017. Deschutes County's job ratio registered 0.44 in 1969, and 0.63 in 2017. Underlying the rising job ratio over the past several decades have been the increases in the labor force participation rates, with the number and proportion of women in the labor market playing a leading role.
An assortment of other factors can contribute to regional differences in the job ratio. They include differences in the proportion of elderly and retirees who no longer work and participate in the labor force, differences in the number and proportion of part-time vs. full-time workers, differences in industry composition, and differences in age and sex distribution and degree of urbanization. Also, a disproportionate number of workers commuting to work outside a county tends to lower its local county job ratio, while a net inflow of workers commuting to work inside the county tends to augment its local county job ratio.
Avoid interpreting the job ratio as the fraction (or percent) of the local population employed. This interpretation should only apply to the "employment-population ratio" statistic compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the Current Population Survey (CPS).
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2017
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2017
Figure 9.
To highlight trends in a local job ratio relative to nationwide trends, Figure 9 tracks Deschutes County's, Oregon's job ratio as a percent of the national job ratio over 1969-2017.

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Deschutes County:
Total Employment, 1969-2017
 
1969
 
12,947
100.0
N
1.41
0.44
96.29
1970
 
13,667
105.6
5.56
1.48
0.44
98.81
1971
 
15,106
116.7
10.53
1.59
0.46
103.89
1972
 
16,767
129.5
11.00
1.67
0.48
106.90
1973
 
18,403
142.1
9.76
1.74
0.49
104.87
1974
 
18,902
146.0
2.71
1.74
0.47
100.31
1975
 
19,706
152.2
4.25
1.78
0.46
101.20
1976
 
22,354
172.7
13.44
1.93
0.50
107.13
1977
 
25,288
195.3
13.13
2.07
0.53
110.29
1978
 
28,444
219.7
12.48
2.19
0.53
107.96
1979
 
30,620
236.5
7.65
2.27
0.52
103.97
1980
 
30,066
232.2
-1.81
2.23
0.48
96.11
1981
 
29,334
226.6
-2.43
2.22
0.46
92.79
1982
 
27,771
214.5
-5.33
2.19
0.44
89.41
1983
 
29,659
229.1
6.80
2.29
0.47
95.91
1984
 
31,566
243.8
6.43
2.35
0.49
96.75
1985
 
33,037
255.2
4.66
2.41
0.51
97.74
1986
 
34,685
267.9
4.99
2.47
0.52
99.73
1987
 
35,621
275.1
2.70
2.45
0.53
99.64
1988
 
38,234
295.3
7.34
2.51
0.56
101.61
1989
 
41,660
321.8
8.96
2.65
0.58
105.73
1990
 
45,455
351.1
9.11
2.79
0.60
107.85
1991
 
46,995
363.0
3.39
2.87
0.58
107.38
1992
 
48,397
373.8
2.98
2.93
0.57
106.71
1993
 
51,071
394.5
5.53
3.01
0.58
107.08
1994
 
54,760
423.0
7.22
3.08
0.60
109.33
1995
 
57,626
445.1
5.23
3.12
0.60
108.64
1996
 
60,831
469.8
5.56
3.17
0.61
109.18
1997
 
64,237
496.2
5.60
3.23
0.63
110.48
1998
 
66,616
514.5
3.70
3.29
0.62
108.55
1999
 
70,552
544.9
5.91
3.44
0.63
108.88
2000
 
74,751
577.4
5.95
3.57
0.64
109.42
2001
 
76,099
587.8
1.80
3.66
0.63
108.70
2002
 
77,415
597.9
1.73
3.75
0.62
107.68
2003
 
80,405
621.0
3.86
3.87
0.62
108.90
2004
 
86,200
665.8
7.21
4.04
0.64
111.76
2005
 
92,848
717.1
7.71
4.23
0.66
113.26
2006
 
98,924
764.1
6.54
4.38
0.67
113.29
2007
 
102,267
789.9
3.38
4.43
0.67
112.41
2008
 
98,956
764.3
-3.24
4.32
0.63
107.07
2009
 
92,268
712.7
-6.76
4.21
0.59
103.60
2010
 
90,538
699.3
-1.87
4.16
0.57
102.69
2011
 
91,525
706.9
1.09
4.16
0.57
101.49
2012
 
92,973
718.1
1.58
4.19
0.58
101.09
2013
 
96,990
749.1
4.32
4.29
0.59
101.79
2014
 
102,651
792.9
5.84
4.42
0.61
103.61
2015
 
109,051
842.3
6.23
4.57
0.63
105.55
2016
 
119,096
919.9
9.21
4.87
0.66
110.25
2017
 
118,159
912.6
-0.79
4.72
0.63
105.01
Source: Calculations by the Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project (OR-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Oregon:
Total Employment, 1969-2017
 
1969
 
920,183
100.0
N
1.01
0.45
98.66
1970
 
925,933
100.6
0.62
1.01
0.44
98.43
1971
 
950,552
103.3
2.66
1.04
0.44
99.85
1972
 
1,001,074
108.8
5.32
1.06
0.46
101.19
1973
 
1,058,290
115.0
5.72
1.08
0.47
101.50
1974
 
1,089,196
118.4
2.92
1.09
0.48
101.76
1975
 
1,105,316
120.1
1.48
1.12
0.48
103.58
1976
 
1,156,014
125.6
4.59
1.14
0.49
104.36
1977
 
1,222,672
132.9
5.77
1.16
0.50
104.86
1978
 
1,296,308
140.9
6.02
1.18
0.52
104.59
1979
 
1,349,641
146.7
4.11
1.19
0.52
103.89
1980
 
1,349,543
146.7
-0.01
1.18
0.51
101.86
1981
 
1,319,241
143.4
-2.25
1.15
0.49
98.74
1982
 
1,269,532
138.0
-3.77
1.11
0.48
96.67
1983
 
1,295,260
140.8
2.03
1.12
0.49
98.70
1984
 
1,341,925
145.8
3.60
1.11
0.50
98.46
1985
 
1,370,436
148.9
2.12
1.11
0.51
98.55
1986
 
1,405,810
152.8
2.58
1.11
0.52
99.66
1987
 
1,454,698
158.1
3.48
1.12
0.54
100.73
1988
 
1,521,518
165.3
4.59
1.14
0.56
101.60
1989
 
1,574,429
171.1
3.48
1.16
0.56
102.26
1990
 
1,626,385
176.7
3.30
1.18
0.57
102.60
1991
 
1,635,517
177.7
0.56
1.19
0.56
102.67
1992
 
1,653,649
179.7
1.11
1.20
0.55
102.62
1993
 
1,697,791
184.5
2.67
1.21
0.55
102.43
1994
 
1,780,620
193.5
4.88
1.23
0.57
104.10
1995
 
1,845,372
200.5
3.64
1.25
0.58
104.32
1996
 
1,919,606
208.6
4.02
1.27
0.59
105.43
1997
 
1,986,426
215.9
3.48
1.29
0.60
106.06
1998
 
2,022,237
219.8
1.80
1.28
0.60
105.00
1999
 
2,050,382
222.8
1.39
1.27
0.60
104.36
2000
 
2,091,533
227.3
2.01
1.26
0.61
104.05
2001
 
2,079,058
225.9
-0.60
1.26
0.60
103.21
2002
 
2,062,096
224.1
-0.82
1.25
0.59
102.25
2003
 
2,076,533
225.7
0.70
1.25
0.59
102.35
2004
 
2,132,982
231.8
2.72
1.26
0.60
103.63
2005
 
2,196,887
238.7
3.00
1.27
0.61
104.26
2006
 
2,256,424
245.2
2.71
1.28
0.61
104.29
2007
 
2,307,415
250.8
2.26
1.29
0.62
104.00
2008
 
2,288,619
248.7
-0.81
1.28
0.61
103.04
2009
 
2,189,148
237.9
-4.35
1.26
0.57
101.55
2010
 
2,174,324
236.3
-0.68
1.26
0.57
101.38
2011
 
2,201,553
239.3
1.25
1.25
0.57
100.79
2012
 
2,219,899
241.2
0.83
1.24
0.57
100.01
2013
 
2,259,714
245.6
1.79
1.24
0.58
99.99
2014
 
2,322,003
252.3
2.76
1.25
0.59
100.30
2015
 
2,388,647
259.6
2.87
1.26
0.59
100.32
2016
 
2,447,178
265.9
2.45
1.27
0.60
100.17
2017
 
2,501,057
271.8
2.20
1.28
0.60
100.26
Source: Calculations by the Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project (OR-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
United States:
Total Employment, 1969-2017
 
1969
 
91,053,200
100.0
N
0.45
1970
 
91,277,600
100.2
0.25
0.45
1971
 
91,581,400
100.6
0.33
0.44
1972
 
94,312,200
103.6
2.98
0.45
1973
 
98,427,500
108.1
4.36
0.47
1974
 
100,111,800
109.9
1.71
0.47
1975
 
98,900,600
108.6
-1.21
0.46
1976
 
101,591,200
111.6
2.72
0.47
1977
 
105,042,200
115.4
3.40
0.48
1978
 
109,686,600
120.5
4.42
0.49
1979
 
113,147,100
124.3
3.15
0.50
1980
 
113,983,200
125.2
0.74
0.50
1981
 
114,914,000
126.2
0.82
0.50
1982
 
114,163,300
125.4
-0.65
0.49
1983
 
115,645,700
127.0
1.30
0.49
1984
 
120,528,100
132.4
4.22
0.51
1985
 
123,796,700
136.0
2.71
0.52
1986
 
126,232,300
138.6
1.97
0.53
1987
 
129,548,400
142.3
2.63
0.53
1988
 
133,563,900
146.7
3.10
0.55
1989
 
136,177,800
149.6
1.96
0.55
1990
 
138,330,900
151.9
1.58
0.55
1991
 
137,612,800
151.1
-0.52
0.54
1992
 
138,166,100
151.7
0.40
0.54
1993
 
140,774,400
154.6
1.89
0.54
1994
 
144,196,600
158.4
2.43
0.55
1995
 
147,915,800
162.4
2.58
0.56
1996
 
151,056,200
165.9
2.12
0.56
1997
 
154,541,200
169.7
2.31
0.57
1998
 
158,481,200
174.1
2.55
0.57
1999
 
161,531,300
177.4
1.92
0.58
2000
 
165,370,800
181.6
2.38
0.59
2001
 
165,522,200
181.8
0.09
0.58
2002
 
165,095,100
181.3
-0.26
0.57
2003
 
165,921,500
182.2
0.50
0.57
2004
 
168,839,700
185.4
1.76
0.58
2005
 
172,338,400
189.3
2.07
0.58
2006
 
175,868,600
193.1
2.05
0.59
2007
 
179,543,700
197.2
2.09
0.60
2008
 
179,213,900
196.8
-0.18
0.59
2009
 
173,636,700
190.7
-3.11
0.57
2010
 
172,901,700
189.9
-0.42
0.56
2011
 
176,091,700
193.4
1.84
0.57
2012
 
178,979,700
196.6
1.64
0.57
2013
 
182,325,100
200.2
1.87
0.58
2014
 
186,235,800
204.5
2.14
0.58
2015
 
190,317,800
209.0
2.19
0.59
2016
 
193,368,900
212.4
1.60
0.60
2017
 
196,132,200
215.4
1.43
0.60
Source: Calculations by the Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project (OR-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PN
 
   
Copyright © 2019. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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