Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth
Across Oregon Counties
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Employment Growth by County
Oregon:
2010-2017 = 1.69%
2017 = 2.20%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all of Oregon's 36 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of Oregon's 36 counties over the latest available year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Employment Growth by County
Oregon:
2010-2017 = 1.69%
2017 = 2.20%
This figure displays the 36 counties of Oregon as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 1.69%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.69% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (1.69%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 5 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2017, while 31 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 16 counties whose most recent (2017) employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.20%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 20 counties whose employment growth over 2017 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 36 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 1.69% over 2010-2017 and 2.20% over 2017:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are the three counties whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (1.69%) and near-term (2.20%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are the two counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.69%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Oregon average (2.20%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the thirteen counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (1.69%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.20%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the eighteen counties whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (1.69%) and near-term (2.20%).
   
 
Summary of Oregon's 36 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.20%)
Above
(2.20%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.69%)
2
3
5
Below
(1.69%)
18
13
31
 
20
16
36
 
   
Leading Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading Counties
Oregon:
2010-2017 = 1.69%
2017 = 2.20%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Oregon counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Oregon's average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 1.69%) as well as near-term (2017 = 2.20%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017 as noted in the table below.
Of Oregon's 36 counties, just 3 (8%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping Counties
Oregon:
2010-2017 = 1.69%
2017 = 2.20%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 2 Oregon counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2017 = 1.69%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2017 = 2.20%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Only 2 ( 6%) of Oregon's 36 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining Counties
Oregon:
2010-2017 = 1.69%
2017 = 2.20%
This figure shows the distribution of the 13 Oregon counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2017 = 1.69%), while they outpaced Oregon's average near-term (2017 = 2.20%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of Oregon's 36 counties, 36% (13) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging Counties
Oregon:
2010-2017 = 1.69%
2017 = 2.20%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 18 Oregon counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 1.69%) as well as near-term (2017 = 2.20%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
50% of Oregon's counties, 18 of 36, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
Oregon
Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading Counties
 
5
1.73
 
11
2.49
231,030
 
2
3.09
 
9
2.80
7,792
 
3
2.44
 
14
2.32
377,127
Slipping Counties
 
1
3.20
 
36
-0.79
118,159
 
4
2.16
 
22
1.90
651,616
Gaining Counties
 
20
0.95
 
13
2.40
51,185
 
17
0.99
 
5
3.67
17,357
 
36
-0.71
 
4
4.13
1,337
 
32
0.07
 
15
2.30
3,775
 
7
1.49
 
3
4.38
17,599
 
8
1.38
 
16
2.26
122,840
 
19
0.96
 
10
2.71
38,671
 
28
0.25
 
6
3.38
3,856
 
15
1.00
 
12
2.42
60,760
 
6
1.66
 
2
5.09
194,482
 
9
1.37
 
7
3.05
30,454
 
16
0.99
 
1
6.61
807
 
10
1.25
 
8
2.90
50,808
Lagging Counties
 
35
-0.06
 
20
1.92
8,591
 
13
1.09
 
29
1.29
24,973
 
25
0.31
 
32
1.16
31,386
 
24
0.47
 
18
2.06
9,826
 
29
0.11
 
34
0.04
10,354
 
22
0.61
 
25
1.64
51,958
 
33
0.00
 
33
1.05
4,149
 
18
0.98
 
19
1.97
9,279
 
30
0.08
 
17
2.14
31,234
 
12
1.14
 
23
1.89
207,602
 
27
0.28
 
24
1.68
26,012
 
34
-0.04
 
28
1.34
17,292
 
11
1.14
 
35
-0.21
1,407
 
23
0.55
 
27
1.61
13,579
 
26
0.29
 
30
1.25
39,712
 
31
0.07
 
31
1.23
14,434
 
21
0.80
 
26
1.61
4,849
 
14
1.02
 
21
1.91
14,765
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.69
 
2.20
2,501,057
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.54
 
1.43
196,132,200
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
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