Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Farm Earnings Growth
Across Oregon Counties
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 3.53%
2022 = 5.98%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real farm earnings growth across all of Oregon's 36 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real farm earnings growth of Oregon's 36 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Farm
Earnings Growth
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 3.53%
2022 = 5.98%
This figure displays the 36 counties of Oregon as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real farm earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real farm earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real farm earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 3.53%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 3.53% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (3.53%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 24 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 12 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 15 counties whose most recent (2022) real farm earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (5.98%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 21 counties whose real farm earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 36 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 3.53% over 2010-2022 and 5.98% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real farm earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (3.53%) and near-term (5.98%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.53%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Oregon average (5.98%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (3.53%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (5.98%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real farm earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (3.53%) and near-term (5.98%).
   
 
Summary of Oregon's 36 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(5.98%)
Above
(5.98%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(3.53%)
9
15
24
Below
(3.53%)
12
0
12
 
21
15
36
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 3.53%
2022 = 5.98%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Oregon counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Oregon's average annual real farm earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 3.53%) as well as near-term (2022 = 5.98%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Oregon's 36 counties, 15 (42%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 3.53%
2022 = 5.98%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 9 Oregon counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real farm earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 3.53%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 5.98%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 9 (25%) of Oregon's 36 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 3.53%
2022 = 5.98%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 12 Oregon counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real farm earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 3.53%) as well as near-term (2022 = 5.98%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real farm earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
33% of Oregon's counties, 12 of 36, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Oregon
Real* Farm Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
3
250.46
 
4
57.47
22,905
 
4
117.06
 
2
72.19
-109
 
10
52.02
 
8
28.18
7,991
 
18
14.98
 
13
22.03
21,824
 
6
92.45
 
3
63.19
6,309
 
2
1,342.04
 
10
26.15
36,793
 
16
32.08
 
14
16.69
24,546
 
12
42.79
 
11
24.48
79,908
 
17
25.66
 
7
35.58
30,848
 
15
32.98
 
9
27.82
73,393
 
21
10.71
 
12
23.13
149,949
 
19
11.87
 
1
87.46
28,402
 
22
6.55
 
6
39.72
135,452
 
7
77.93
 
5
53.39
14,557
 
8
57.49
 
15
16.47
12,350
Slipping Counties
 
11
50.28
 
22
-4.03
18,551
 
20
11.74
 
33
-28.17
3,893
 
9
54.25
 
18
1.59
12,004
 
13
40.25
 
35
-64.96
1,012
 
24
3.78
 
24
-4.36
55,772
 
5
113.61
 
36
-66.68
1,122
 
23
5.55
 
16
4.04
68,003
 
1
3,514.83
 
19
1.01
32,795
 
14
40.17
 
17
2.79
2,395
Lagging Counties
 
29
0.92
 
25
-5.39
22,999
 
32
-0.75
 
20
-2.31
143,421
 
26
2.91
 
28
-9.07
10,724
 
36
-6.68
 
26
-5.55
-14,099
 
30
-0.03
 
32
-20.62
35,399
 
35
-3.34
 
34
-33.91
8,040
 
27
1.45
 
23
-4.15
255,511
 
31
-0.07
 
30
-10.83
42,726
 
34
-3.15
 
31
-11.00
21,506
 
25
3.01
 
21
-3.50
31,881
 
33
-0.83
 
29
-10.60
99,374
 
28
0.96
 
27
-6.12
102,181
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.53
 
5.98
1,600,328
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7.08
 
5.51
114,272,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_500000_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2023. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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