Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
Across Oregon Counties
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 2.49%
2022 = 2.58%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real federal civilian earnings growth across all of Oregon's 36 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real federal civilian earnings growth of Oregon's 36 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Federal Civilian
Earnings Growth
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 2.49%
2022 = 2.58%
This figure displays the 36 counties of Oregon as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real federal civilian earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real federal civilian earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.49%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.49% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.49%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 18 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 18 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 25 counties whose most recent (2022) real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.58%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 11 counties whose real federal civilian earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 36 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.49% over 2010-2022 and 2.58% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.49%) and near-term (2.58%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.49%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Oregon average (2.58%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.49%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.58%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.49%) and near-term (2.58%).
   
 
Summary of Oregon's 36 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.58%)
Above
(2.58%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.49%)
4
14
18
Below
(2.49%)
7
11
18
 
11
25
36
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 2.49%
2022 = 2.58%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Oregon counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Oregon's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.49%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.58%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Oregon's 36 counties, 14 (39%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 2.49%
2022 = 2.58%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 4 Oregon counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.49%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 2.58%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 4 (11%) of Oregon's 36 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 2.49%
2022 = 2.58%
This figure shows the distribution of the 11 Oregon counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.49%), while they outpaced Oregon's average near-term (2022 = 2.58%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Oregon's 36 counties, 31% (11) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 2.49%
2022 = 2.58%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 7 Oregon counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real federal civilian earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.49%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.58%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real federal civilian earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
19% of Oregon's counties, 7 of 36, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Oregon
Real* Federal Civilian Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
14
3.01
 
8
7.95
36,192
 
6
4.09
 
3
12.96
10,695
 
7
4.07
 
17
6.20
120,693
 
2
4.82
 
1
14.12
1,099
 
9
3.85
 
5
11.07
30,379
 
17
2.71
 
15
6.27
26,559
 
15
2.93
 
21
5.25
32,550
 
10
3.77
 
20
5.46
223,869
 
1
4.96
 
25
2.64
40,715
 
3
4.77
 
6
10.75
11,316
 
5
4.10
 
22
4.19
18,084
 
12
3.26
 
19
5.75
27,948
 
4
4.13
 
12
7.37
115,046
 
8
4.06
 
13
7.02
442
Slipping Counties
 
11
3.56
 
30
0.81
13,323
 
13
3.20
 
26
2.45
217,214
 
18
2.53
 
33
0.37
1,685,638
 
16
2.74
 
32
0.62
61,344
Gaining Counties
 
29
1.67
 
11
7.39
22,232
 
28
1.70
 
10
7.48
63,018
 
34
1.26
 
9
7.59
137,285
 
21
2.23
 
23
4.08
6,863
 
23
2.16
 
2
13.09
41,430
 
24
2.06
 
14
6.52
21,499
 
19
2.34
 
16
6.25
160,122
 
20
2.29
 
24
3.36
6,122
 
36
-1.32
 
18
6.16
60,658
 
33
1.40
 
4
11.09
9,368
 
25
2.02
 
7
8.26
40,027
Lagging Counties
 
32
1.48
 
31
0.70
18,895
 
30
1.53
 
28
1.98
33,778
 
22
2.17
 
34
-1.88
173,184
 
31
1.52
 
36
-6.19
12,358
 
35
1.23
 
27
2.38
84,002
 
26
1.84
 
29
0.96
24,308
 
27
1.70
 
35
-5.04
11,485
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.49
 
2.58
3,599,740
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.98
 
3.80
397,841,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620100_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2024. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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