Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Manufacturing Employment Growth
Across Oregon Counties
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 1.05%
2022 = 3.04%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of manufacturing employment growth across all of Oregon's 36 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the manufacturing employment growth of Oregon's 36 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 1.05%
2022 = 3.04%
This figure displays the 36 counties of Oregon as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the manufacturing employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term manufacturing employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 1.05%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.05% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (1.05%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 13 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 18 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 10 counties whose most recent (2022) manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.04%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 21 counties whose manufacturing employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 36 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 1.05% over 2010-2022 and 3.04% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (1.05%) and near-term (3.04%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.05%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Oregon average (3.04%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (1.05%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.04%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (1.05%) and near-term (3.04%).
   
 
Summary of Oregon's 36 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.04%)
Above
(3.04%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.05%)
6
7
13
Below
(1.05%)
15
3
18
 
21
10
31
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 1.05%
2022 = 3.04%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Oregon counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Oregon's average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 1.05%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.04%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Oregon's 36 counties, 7 (19%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 1.05%
2022 = 3.04%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 6 Oregon counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 1.05%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 3.04%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 6 (17%) of Oregon's 36 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 1.05%
2022 = 3.04%
This figure shows the distribution of the 3 Oregon counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 1.05%), while they outpaced Oregon's average near-term (2022 = 3.04%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Oregon's 36 counties, only 8% (3) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Oregon:
2010-2022 = 1.05%
2022 = 3.04%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 15 Oregon counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 1.05%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.04%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
42% of Oregon's counties, 15 of 36, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Oregon
Manufacturing Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
3
3.46
 
4
6.86
7,170
 
2
3.53
 
10
3.67
1,355
 
13
1.09
 
5
5.50
8,518
 
11
1.23
 
7
5.12
1,641
 
5
2.50
 
2
7.51
229
 
6
2.17
 
8
4.88
55,884
 
9
1.65
 
3
6.90
7,761
Slipping Counties
 
12
1.11
 
27
-0.89
777
 
4
3.10
 
23
0.46
1,980
 
8
1.81
 
30
-2.63
8,298
 
10
1.26
 
19
1.65
3,453
 
1
4.08
 
11
2.90
1,845
 
7
1.95
 
13
2.81
1,388
Gaining Counties
 
31
-1.04
 
9
4.08
3,396
 
21
0.35
 
6
5.42
875
 
20
0.57
 
1
8.17
2,038
Lagging Counties
 
16
0.82
 
20
1.19
683
 
17
0.75
 
14
2.76
19,374
 
30
-0.93
 
16
2.62
1,882
 
15
0.93
 
22
0.50
1,819
 
28
-0.27
 
29
-2.55
1,761
 
18
0.58
 
26
-0.47
5,044
 
22
0.33
 
25
-0.40
246
 
14
0.94
 
18
2.24
16,077
 
23
0.22
 
15
2.72
1,208
 
19
0.58
 
28
-2.50
1,092
 
26
-0.05
 
21
0.64
10,790
 
25
-0.03
 
12
2.84
34,045
 
27
-0.21
 
24
-0.30
2,302
 
24
0.09
 
31
-4.39
3,071
 
29
-0.36
 
32
-6.73
554
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
160
 
U
U
 
17
2.50
41
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.05
 
3.04
206,906
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.64
 
3.63
13,523,700
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_510500_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2024. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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