Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing State Government Employment Growth
Across Oregon Counties
State Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2008-2017 and 2017
State Government
Employment Growth
Oregon:
2008-2017 = -1.65%
2017 = -0.05%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of state government employment growth across all of Oregon's 36 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the state government employment growth of Oregon's 36 counties over the latest available year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2008-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
State Government
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2008-2017 and 2017
State Government
Employment Growth
Oregon:
2008-2017 = -1.65%
2017 = -0.05%
This figure displays the 36 counties of Oregon as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual state government employment growth rate over the long-term period (2008-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the state government employment growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term state government employment growth exceeded the statewide average of -1.65%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at -1.65% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual state government employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (-1.65%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 26 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2008-2017, while 7 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 24 counties whose most recent (2017) state government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-0.05%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 9 counties whose state government employment growth over 2017 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 36 counties corresponding with their long-term (2008-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of -1.65% over 2008-2017 and -0.05% over 2017:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual state government employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (-1.65%) and near-term (-0.05%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual state government employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-1.65%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Oregon average (-0.05%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual state government employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (-1.65%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-0.05%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual state government employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (-1.65%) and near-term (-0.05%).
   
 
Summary of Oregon's 36 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-0.05%)
Above
(-0.05%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(-1.65%)
7
19
26
Below
(-1.65%)
2
5
7
 
9
24
33
 
   
Leading Counties
2017 vs. 2008-2017 Averages
Leading Counties
Oregon:
2008-2017 = -1.65%
2017 = -0.05%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Oregon counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Oregon's average annual state government employment growth both long-term (2008-2017 = -1.65%) as well as near-term (2017 = -0.05%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual state government employment growth rate over 2008-2017.
Of Oregon's 36 counties, 19 (53%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2017 vs. 2008-2017 Averages
Slipping Counties
Oregon:
2008-2017 = -1.65%
2017 = -0.05%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 7 Oregon counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual state government employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2008-2017 = -1.65%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2017 = -0.05%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual state government employment growth rate over 2008-2017.
Observe that 7 (19%) of Oregon's 36 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2017 vs. 2008-2017 Averages
Gaining Counties
Oregon:
2008-2017 = -1.65%
2017 = -0.05%
This figure shows the distribution of the 5 Oregon counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual state government employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2008-2017 = -1.65%), while they outpaced Oregon's average near-term (2017 = -0.05%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual state government employment growth rate over 2008-2017.
Of Oregon's 36 counties, only 14% (5) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2017 vs. 2008-2017 Averages
Lagging Counties
Oregon:
2008-2017 = -1.65%
2017 = -0.05%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 2 Oregon counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual state government employment growth both long-term (2008-2017 = -1.65%) as well as near-term (2017 = -0.05%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual state government employment growth rate over 2008-2017.
6% of Oregon's counties, 2 of 36, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Oregon
State Government Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2008-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading Counties
 
16
0.43
 
17
0.99
205
 
24
-0.79
 
21
0.33
1,199
 
4
1.67
 
3
4.73
155
 
22
-0.26
 
10
2.03
452
 
18
0.26
 
12
1.92
106
 
8
1.11
 
7
2.34
655
 
6
1.31
 
15
1.52
134
 
13
0.47
 
11
2.02
101
 
17
0.39
 
23
0.00
92
 
2
21.73
 
2
5.28
299
 
7
1.31
 
20
0.50
399
 
21
-0.14
 
4
3.03
170
 
5
1.49
 
19
0.67
599
 
3
3.83
 
1
24.82
24,732
 
19
0.19
 
23
0.00
69
 
9
1.10
 
5
2.94
35
 
23
-0.57
 
23
0.00
64
 
11
0.68
 
18
0.87
1,970
 
10
0.94
 
6
2.36
217
Slipping Counties
 
12
0.53
 
33
-25.11
340
 
14
0.45
 
28
-3.65
132
 
1
35.96
 
34
-84.53
869
 
15
0.43
 
32
-7.75
1,143
 
20
-0.10
 
27
-2.84
308
 
26
-1.50
 
31
-5.78
1,417
 
25
-1.31
 
29
-3.79
203
Gaining Counties
 
29
-4.69
 
9
2.11
970
 
30
-4.76
 
14
1.63
436
 
31
-5.57
 
16
1.34
1,661
 
27
-3.70
 
22
0.05
4,324
 
32
-6.32
 
13
1.65
369
Lagging Counties
 
28
-4.22
 
26
-1.77
277
 
33
-6.39
 
30
-5.24
362
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
8
2.20
232
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-1.65
 
-0.05
44,703
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.24
 
0.26
5,365,000
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1500N_520310_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2019. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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